Where Do We Go From Here?

On April 12 revelers in at least 28 nations on six continents – plus cyberspace – will celebrate Yuri Gagarin’s historic flight with more than 100 "Yuri’s Night" parties. Now in its sixth year – or its 45th if you count its Cosmonautics Day precursor in the old Soviet Union – Yuri’s Night brings together thousands of space-exploration enthusiasts to commemorate humankind’s first step off the home planet.

Unfortunately, so far that “single step” hasn’t led to the “journey of a thousand miles” that Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu heralded more than 2,500 years ago. Humans still orbit Earth not far above the cloud tops, enjoying the same view Gagarin did in 1961. We’ve visited the Moon, but thanks to the faulty decisions NASA Administrator Mike Griffin has outlined so well on this site we’ve retreated back to low-Earth orbit. We’re likely to stay there another decade at least.

But now at least there is growing momentum worldwide for another step into space, possibly to begin the open-ended journey that motivates all those who look to the stars for inspiration and wonder. Griffin and his NASA colleagues have mapped a route back to the Moon, and invited the other spacefaring nations of the world to join them in building a permanent outpost in a sunny spot at one of the lunar poles. The money is there, as Griffin explains in the look-ahead he drafted on the occasion of Sputnik 1’s 50th anniversary. But there also are pitfalls, outlined by Vincent Sabathier, Scott Hubbard, Francois Auque and others in their 50th-anniversary contributions here.

Clearly the human endeavor in space is at a cusp – a point of transition from one historical period to the next. But what will that next period be? At a Sputnik-anniversary event in Paris sponsored by the International Astronautical Federation the former head of the Indian Space Research Organization – Krishnaswamy Kasturirangan – outlined a very different view from Griffin’s vision of bringing the Moon and the rest of the Solar System into Earth’s economic sphere.

Kasturirangan, now a member of India’s Parliament, drew on his nation’s space heritage to outline an age in which space assets would be used to improve the life of Earth’s inhabitants directly. Communications satellites would draw the planet’s villages together with distance education and telemedicine, just as they do in India today. Earth-observation spacecraft would help boost food production and ensure clean water for the millions who must live without it. And a combination of the two types of space assets could help mitigate the effects of the major disasters that inevitably befall us as we struggle to maintain galloping population growth on a planetary surface that is constantly changing under natural and man-made influences.

There are other possible futures as well. In his contribution to this site, space-tourism pioneer Peter Diamandis outlines a world of profits and adventure beyond the atmosphere, while Theresa Hitchens describes different ways in which the "high ground" of space can be used to military ends.

In the belief that vigorous debate is the best way to highlight the opportunities and dangers that lie ahead as humans move off the planet for good, Aviation Week wants to start a conversation on how mankind should make the next steps on a journey that could well grow to a thousand parsecs, and more, some day. What do you think? Should we focus on exploring deep space with humans and robots, or look inward at Earth? What should be the role of government? Industry? Adventurers and entrepreneurs? Is now the time to leave our warlike ways behind, and concentrate on expanding the peaceful uses of outer space? What about the space-based military monitoring and treaty verification that helps keep the peace on Earth? We’re also looking for suggestions on features we can add to the site to help advance the discussion.

You can start posting your answers today. Think of it as another way to celebrate Yuri’s Night.

--Frank Morring, Jr.

Comments

[Joe Jenney]

I don't think it's a question of which of the alternatives outlined should be followed. Today nations are working on all of the alternatives and there is no reason not to continue all. The current dependence on space for weather, navigation, communications and earth monitoring can surely grow as both technologies grow and the needs grow. These applications exist because there is a huge economic benefit and it should continue. Whereas I see little benefit from the space station I can see tremendous benefits arising from solving the technical problems associated with putting people on Mars. There will be direct payoff on earth from the solutions to these problems. Finally, space has been a major contributor to avoiding major wars and a big advantage to those that have military space capabilities in recent wars. I don't see this changing in the near future.