Three Scenarios For Space Exploration

      

                        By Vincent Sabathier

      There are three possible scenarios for space exploration in the coming 50 years, each connected to a different geo-strategic evolution.

      The first one assumes that civil space exploration will develop swiftly in the near term, with broad international cooperation bringing the Solar System into our economic sphere.

      The second assumes that space exploration will expand significantly but will be driven mainly by national or regional goals. There are many of these, including national prestige and image and the acquisition of security assets and technology. Interoperability among nations can exist, but the synergies will be limited and the overall progress slow.

      The third one assumes that budgetary constraints worldwide and the perceived threat from and in space are so great that the world’s nations will favor militarization of space and will postpone exploration.

      To elaborate, the first scenario can be thought of as the system of systems. This scenario represents the most international integration, the most robustness and the most synergy. It is likely to provide for both long term and global space exploration that will make the Moon our seventh continent. It will provide for interoperable space transportation systems to go back and forth to our natural satellite. It will utilize private capabilities that will seek funding in the global marketplace. An early prototype could be the Global Earth Observation System of System (GEOSS) promoted with success by the U.S. in 2004.

      The advantage of this approach for exploration is that humankind is not really advanced yet in its plan to settle on the Moon. Since there are no firm plans for lunar settlement yet, the resulting flexibility should make the long-term outcome easier to implement.

      To jump-start this scenario and prepare the future, the Human Space Exploration Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington is about to launch an international network of graduate students that will design a lunar base on a voluntary basis. The only constraint they will face in the exercise will be a requirement to use only systems not controlled by U.S. International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). The exercise will also promote a global forum that operates above, but includes, the space agencies, focusing on broader governance for space exploration.

      It is important to stress one possible variation of this scenario. The Indianapolis Colts are “world champions” in “football.” However, the real world champion in football is Italy. There is indeed a small but real chance or risk that sort of confused scenario would develop for space exploration as well.

      On one hand, the U.S. appears to have the general perception that it does not need anyone’s help to go back to the Moon. It believes that its technology and industrial base are far superior to anyone else’s, and is stressing the strategic aspect of a national infrastructure for a lunar return.

      On the other hand, the reality that in the rest of the world - the ITAR-free zone, or the metric-system world - people know that their limited resources force them to cooperate. This divergence could very well lead to two different games, with their respective definitions, goals and constraints.

      The isolationist scenario that some in the U.S. still confuse with leadership was nearly realized when the International Charter for disaster management was created in the field of remote sensing. In this case the U.S. is taking part through NOAA, but is not a signatory of the Charter. Another example is the Global Positioning System/Galileo competition.

      The second scenario could be considered the program of programs. This scenario is the one promoted for some time by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). It assumes space exploration will go on at a slow pace and will remain fragmented. It can be considered, unfortunately, as realistic, and admits from the onset that integration will be very limited and that national/regional agendas will prevail worldwide.

      Each nation/region will pursue its own program for its own national reasons. This will provide for a lot of redundancy and few synergies. A good example to illustrate this scenario is the fleet of lunar remote sensing missions that are going to be launched in the next two years. Smart-1 for Europe as already been launched. Next comes the Selene from Japan, then Chang ER-1 from China, followed by Chandrayaan from India, and then a NASA orbiter. Of course you will find those who will tell you that these orbiters include international cooperation since they carry foreign payloads, but no one can deny the waste of resources and time overall. That is the program of programs. Interoperability can exist through data treatment and sharing, but that is indeed a very primitive collaboration.

      National security spaces typify the final scenario. It assumes that space exploration will slow down to benefit low-Earth orbit space activity focused on security. The proliferation of both missile and nuclear technologies that soon will be available in North Korea and Iran; the instability of Pakistan, and the development of anti-satellite satellites and other measures to deny space capabilities all will tend to push for more spending in missile defense and to some extent space surveillance and space defense.

      This trend already exists in Japan, where the Diet is currently reviewing its space policy with the idea of allowing military space activities. No attention is currently given to human space exploration at the political level. In Europe, the budgetary issues on Galileo and Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) might attract additional spending that will not be available for exploration.

      In conclusion, there is hope that we are entering the second space age – when global space exploration will develop and the Moon will become our seventh continent. A lot of progress has been made in this direction over the past three years. However, neither international cooperation nor space exploration should be taken for granted. If global paranoia continues to spread, and without a clear global dialogue on space exploration, space surveillance and space debris, the world could decide to focus its space efforts on low Earth orbit for security.

Vincent Sabathier is director of the Human Space Exploration Initiatives at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Comments

[Michael J. Coppi]

Man on Mars by 2019 using 3 Shuttles
To Reduce Program Costs
MODIFY THE SPACE SHUTTLES FOR A MANNED MISSION TO MARS
Before planned 2011 Retiring of the STS Fleet

Send 3 Shuttles to Mars
......by Michael J. Coppi, [email protected], 01/05/09

As a former Aerospace Engineer with the Space Transportation System, I envision that the U.S. can complete a manned Mars mission (landing/return) within ten years. Such could also be accomplished on a much lower budget (in relation to a 100% newly designed program), by using existing hardware (the 3 Space Shuttles as primary components [+ some new equipment]) and including backup systems to ensure mission success.

Here's an outline -- naturally there are details to work out, but this mission SHOULD BE viable [Orbiter Names are used arbitrarily].............

OUTLINE SYNOPSIS:

A. Discovery to Mars - Atmospheric Penetration, Landing, Return-to-Orbit Module

B. Atlantis to Mars Orbit - Docks with + Returns Excursion Crew to Earth

C. Endeavour Accompanies as Contingency Rescue - Backup of All Elements

OUTLINE SUMMARY

i). Launch into low earth orbit an unmanned vehicle carrying a spaceworthy 'CANister' [CAN] - supply of food/water/oxygen to support 3 astronauts during journey to Mars.

ii). Launch into low earth orbit an unmanned vehicle carrying a Booster Rocket Motor [BRM] for propulsion to Mars.

'CAN' and 'BRM' are 'parked' together, possibly [preferably] docked-with/tethered-to International Space Station [ISS]. See below [note c] for alternative to BRM.

1). Launch 'Discovery' from KSC pad 39A - in the cargo bay is an MEM [Mars Exit Module - designed to carry crew from Mars surface to Mars orbit upon completion of surface exploration].

MEM/Additional crew could also be pre-launched/picked-up at ISS.

2). Discovery picks up CAN/BRM/MEM/Crew as necessary. MEM must go in cargo bay, 'CAN' is attached via a hatch/airlock for access en-route [nominal length of trip to Mars = 9 months]. 'BRM' is 'strapped on' for boost to Mars + course corrections and insertion into Mars orbit.

Discovery makes a one-way trip to Mars (to be immediately followed by Atlantis for crew return - see below), where it will serve as lander (or introduction into Martian atmosphere of lander) - see further below.

3). Atlantis is launched. Minimal [2] crew. Payload [food/water/oxygen for crew of 2 to Mars + return of 5 astronauts] is pre-stowed in cargo bay and/or picked up in orbit like Discovery's 'CAN'. Also picks up a pre-launched 'BRM' [double capacity BRM = fuel to/from Mars].
Atlantis is the 'return from Mars' vehicle. Launched within days/weeks of Discovery from KSC pad 39B. Atlantis follows Discovery to Mars to receive MEM/crew upon return from Martian surface.

4). Discovery arrives/orbits Mars, jettisons CAN & BRM. Fires existing onboard OMS [Orbital Maneuvering System] pods and enters Martian atmosphere, positioned to land at smoothest possible locale.
Landing will be rough but upright and survivable. Perhaps oversized tires on retrofitted landing gear [perhaps even skis]. Early deployment of drag chute could possibly compensate for thin Martian atmosphere. See alternate landing scenario further below (MEM ejected as independent soft lander).

5). After 2-week [+/-] excursion, MEM launches directly from cargo bay, docks with Atlantis in Mars orbit (jettison after crew/sample transfer or stow in cargo bay). Utilize Atlantis' double-capacity CAN & BRM for return to Earth, de-orbit as usual, land at KSC or Edwards AFB.

6). Endeavour has been launched within a month of Discovery, and [with its own CAN/BRM/MEM + minimal crew] has followed Atlantis to serve as backup/rescue. (If unused, it can be possibly be fitted for a later Moon Sample Return Mission [MSRM]).

Why relegate retired Space Shuttles to eternity in a museum? The 3 Orbiters can be modified to serve as the backbone of a manned explorative journey of Mars - an STS Finale. Enterprise is already at the Smithsonian, the remainder of the fleet is spaceworthy, and that's exactly where the shuttles should spend their final days: IN SPACE.

by Michael J. Coppi, [email protected], 01/05/09

Notes:

a). Could be accomplished with two Shuttles [2 journey, 1 lands, 1 returns], or three [3rd as backup/rescue Mars Lander w/MEM]. Both [or all three] Orbiters coupled together in "train" configuration with powering Shuttle at rear would eliminate need for separate BRMs and Cans, plus consolidate interplanetary travel.

b). The biggest argument might be concern over Discovery's Mars landing in thin atmosphere and on uncleared ground. Prior reconnaissance can easily choose a relatively barren area with just small rocks. Possibly even "ski"-type landing gear (deployed with explosive charges) instead of wheels. Recall that landing is one-time only.
Alternately, landing crew transfers to MEM, MEM ejects from Discovery within Martian atmosphere, MEM parachutes and/or retrofires to independent soft landing, Discovery impacts unmaaned, acts as 'seeder' per addendum [further below].

c). Perhaps a Mini External Tank [MET] as 'payload' in cargo bay of Discovery upon launch from Earth. Removed from bay in earth orbit [replaced with pre-launched MEM] and attached to the Mars-bound Shuttle [similarly to ET]. Main engines would then be available [greater thrust, throttleable and re-fireable for corrections and orbit insertion]. 'MET' option would remain in Cargo Bay of Atlantis with direct feed line to Main Engines.

Copyright © 2009, Michael J. Coppi,
[email protected], 909-370-3723

From a concept originally proposed 3/15/2005 by Michael J. Coppi
163 W. La Sierra Dr.; Arcadia, CA 91007 626-447-9102

Q & A

I remain adament that this project is feasible and needs to be pursued. Concerns [such as below] are anticipated - the general answer being that any obstacles CAN be overcome. The main thing is that 70% of the equipment needed for a manned mission to Mars ALREADY EXISTS. The opportunity to utilize these resources [Shuttles + STS Launch Capability] should not be forsaken.

I urge promotion of an agenda that incorporates Space Shuttles as the primary component of a manned Mars program. I contend that such a paradigm shift is necessary to achieve this goal.

Addressing particlar queries --

Q:
>>>>>>>
Mass in LEO [Low Earth Orbit]... booster rocket motor component would have to be very large.... [plus extra] propellant to prevent boil-off. This is an Aries V-class payload.
>>>>>>>
Entry speeds... entering the atmosphere from hyperbolic speeds... [shuttles' tiles] could not take the additional heat load.
>>>>>>
Shuttles landing on Mars... at 100,000 feet (the place where Earth's atmosphere is as thin as it is on Mars' surface), the shuttle is going much faster. Landing would be difficult, and deploying the drag chute would not help.
>>>>>>>
Power... fuel cells... deployable solar power system... batteries.
>>>>
Timeline Cost/Manpower... space shuttle [operations] costs $3B/year... not be able to 'switch' to development
<<<<<<<

A:
All the more reason to GO with this program NOW, and especially before the ops force dissipates and/or systems capability is modified [Orion] or lost completely [SRB construction, ET construction, etc.]. New engineering must be contracted.

- Mike Coppi, BSAE, Cal Poly Pomona, 1982
.......................
Addendum --

Seed Mars Now!

.........by Michael J. Coppi, [email protected], 01/05/09

We must begin now to prepare Mars for future colonization by Humans.

The 'search for life' program is now anticlimactic at best, moot at worst. It almost seems a waste to keep sending sterile launders. In fact the uncertainty that all landers have been 100% sterile puts in question the source of any "life" ever found. Remember too that meteorites from Earth may have already seeded Mars in the distant or recent past..

Future probes should be deliberately "contaminated" with any and all organisms that have the slightest chance of surviving and taking root in the Martian environment.

Life forms accustomed to Arctic/Antarctic locales are obvious prime choices.

The simplest method of delivery would be to shield the probe for entry into the Martian atmosphere, then allow it to crash to the surface.

More sophisticated soft landers could even provide nourishment and/or shelter for moss, grass, microbes, even insects.

There's certainly CO2 in the atmosphere to possibly support some hardy polar algae, moss or plant from Earth that can survive with just the moisture from ice that's been found just beneath the Martian surface. Eventually leading to simple grasses. More plants = O2 added to atmosphere for eventual animal life.

Terra-Forming efforts must start now!

by Michael J. Coppi, [email protected], 01/05/09
800 E. Washington St. #833
Colton, CA 92324
909-370-3723

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