International Commercial Space Development for the Future 50 Years

                                     By Francois Auque

     The first 50 years of the Space Era have been driven by the establishment and development of the main space powers: USA and USSR/Russia, followed by Europe, Japan, China, India. Space activities were a field for demonstration of worldwide strategic positioning, with the acquisition of access to space, of new military capabilities, but also through prestige programs in human space flight and exploration, and through utilitarian applications. All these projects funded by governments have allowed the emergence and development of the commercial market, mainly focused on telecommunications applications, and launch services, complemented more recently by space imagery and navigation.
In the next 50 years, the influence of government business will remain, in security applications, in exploration, and also in civil applications supporting sustainable development. But the development of the commercial markets shall accelerate, through various axes.

     Space has always been a privileged medium for data acquisition and transmission, thanks to global coverage. The development of the information society will drive a trend towards more integrated services. Space systems will become elements of a global infosphere architecture, delivering added value information, mixing imagery, localization, and other data, available everywhere every time through efficient telecommunications means. Getting access to a lot of data on mobile means will be a must for the consumers for their comfort, security, and leisure, thus creating a new mass market.

     Governments will also be important customers (for security forces, emergency means, environment agencies, and so forth), procuring these integrated services from private operators on a commercial basis. Moreover, the government space agencies will acquire from the private sector some classical services they were providing themselves in the past: For instance, we can imagine private transport companies for the supply of a Moon base, or for the transport of astronauts.

     New leisure and entertainment markets, using space means, will also develop. Space tourism is already emerging through suborbital flights, and could evolve towards orbital flights if the initial business development is successful. In parallel with the institutional planetary exploration, private sponsored contests might be organized: planetary rover races, solar sail races and the like.

     Going further in terms of futuristic concepts, new space systems could lead to breakthrough applications and development of commercial business. For instance, fast exo-atmospheric travel (Paris-Tokyo in one hour) based on a suborbital space plane, could open a new segment in Earth transport for “space lines” beside the classical airlines. Space-based solar energy supply could provide an alternative source to the energy shortfall, and open the way for exploitation by “space energy consortia.” Exploitation of planetary bodies’ resources, repositories storage or waste disposal in space, are also potential axes for the building of a real stand-alone “space economy.”

     As for any long term forecast, all these possibilities will probably not be realized. There will be technical obstacles, in particular when a real breakthrough is requested. There will be mainly the issue of the initial huge investments to open a new field. As usual, some progress will come from the government applications, indirectly opening the way to new commercial markets. But the real development of a strong commercial space business will rely on two key success factors: first on the dynamism of the private sector, both the industry and the financial community, and its capability to take some risks to foster new markets, and second on the positive action of the governments, easing the emergence of these markets, through appropriate regulations, but also as initial customers.

-- Francois Auque is a member of the EADS executive committee and CEO of EADS Space.

Comments

[Georges Caravelis]

URGENT AND KIND REQUEST
I need to contact Mr AUQUE either on the phone OR via e-mail.
Yet I need both of them. Please send them to me for I have to peresuade him to address a parliamentary committee of the European Parliament, on the subject of SPACE.
And my sincere thanks in advance,
Georges Caravelis

[Loren de Charon de Saint Germain]

Requesting contact details

I kindly request email contact details for Mr. François Auque on behalf of ESA/ESTEC, regarding a space event being held in Berlin in November.

Thank you,

Loren de Charon de Saint Germain